FBI experts say surveillance footage reveals telltale signs of an inexperienced suspect
The clock continues to tick in the desperate search for Nancy Guthrie, but a newly released piece of evidence may hold the key to bringing the 84-year-old grandmother home. When the FBI released chilling surveillance footage from the night of her disappearance, law enforcement experts immediately spotted something that set off alarm bells — the suspect made a critical “rookie” mistake.
The grainy black-and-white images show a masked figure approaching Nancy’s Tucson, Arizona home in the early morning hours of February 1st, 2026. But it wasn’t just the disturbing sight of an armed intruder that caught investigators’ attention. It was how the person carried themselves, how they handled their weapon, and how they attempted to disable the security camera that revealed crucial information about who they might be.
Mark Harrigan, a former FBI agent who once led the bureau’s prestigious Firearms Training Program, analyzed the footage and immediately recognized something was off. The suspect appeared to be carrying a firearm holstered at the front of their body — a placement that experienced criminals would never use.
“That is a very non-conventional way to carry a firearm. Very non-conventional,” Harrigan explained to reporters. In most criminal operations, perpetrators keep weapons concealed to avoid drawing attention. Carrying a gun openly in the front is uncomfortable, impractical, and immediately suspicious to anyone who might see them. “Normally you would want it concealed when you’re going to do a crime, so you’re not calling attention to yourself with an exposed firearm,” he said.
The weapon placement suggests the person may not regularly carry firearms and possibly removed it from their backpack only when approaching the front door. This detail alone has investigators considering a chilling possibility: the kidnapper may have been hired by someone else to carry out the abduction.
But the firearm wasn’t the suspect’s only mistake. The surveillance footage shows the individual attempting to tamper with Nancy’s Nest security camera using methods that betrayed their lack of preparation. The masked figure first tries to block the camera lens with a gloved hand, an ineffective technique that only partially obscures the view. When that doesn’t work, they walk away from the door, appearing to search for something to cover the lens. The suspect then bends down, grabs some vegetation from near the porch, and attempts to use it to block the camera.
“A sophisticated person would have brought something from the very beginning,” Harrigan noted. “Either a hammer or something to remove the camera, or spray paint.” The improvised approach speaks volumes about the suspect’s lack of planning and experience with security systems.
Private investigator Andy Kay explained that the suspect’s decision to tamper with the camera rather than immediately disconnecting it actually worked against them. Nest cameras continuously upload footage to cloud servers as long as they maintain internet connectivity. By attempting to obscure the camera before disconnecting it, the suspect gave the system precious seconds to upload footage to Google’s backend servers — footage that would have been lost if the camera had been immediately disabled.
“The cameras will record to the servers as long as they have internet,” Kay told reporters. “If the camera is disconnected, there should be nothing to overwrite on the server.” In a twist of irony, the suspect’s amateur approach preserved the very evidence that could lead to their identification.
The FBI recovered the footage from residual data in backend systems after working closely with private sector partners, including Google. FBI Director Kash Patel announced that despite Nancy not having a paid cloud storage subscription, investigators were able to retrieve “previously inaccessible new images” showing the armed individual at her front door.
Multiple law enforcement experts who have reviewed the footage agree that the suspect’s behavior suggests they are not a professional criminal. The clumsy camera-tampering attempt, the exposed firearm placement, and the apparent lack of preparation all point toward someone without experience in this type of crime.
“That’s potentially somebody that’s not normally armed or carrying a firearm around in public,” Harrigan said, explaining that the awkward weapon placement indicated unfamiliarity with carrying firearms. The former FBI firearms chief suggested the suspect may have concealed the gun in their backpack during their approach and only placed it in the front holster when nearing the door.
The release of the surveillance images sparked an immediate flood of tips to law enforcement. Within 24 hours of the footage going public, authorities received over 4,000 new calls with potential leads, adding to the 18,000 tips that had already been submitted. The massive public response demonstrates the power of visual evidence in high-profile cases.
Hours after releasing the footage, deputies detained a delivery driver named Carlos for questioning in Rio Rico, Arizona, about 50 miles south of Tucson. Authorities had been monitoring Carlos before the images were released, using cell phone data and traffic analysis to identify him as a potential person of interest. However, after several hours of questioning and a thorough search of his home and vehicle, Carlos was released without charges. He maintained his innocence and told reporters he had never heard of Nancy Guthrie.
The search for Nancy Guthrie, the mother of Today show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, continues into its second week with hundreds of FBI agents and local law enforcement personnel working around the clock. The FBI has established a 24-hour command post in Tucson with crisis management experts, analysts, and investigative teams from field offices across the country.
Savannah Guthrie has made emotional public pleas for information, sharing the surveillance images with her 1.7 million social media followers and stating, “We believe she is still alive. Bring her home.” The FBI is offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to Nancy’s recovery or the arrest of those responsible for her disappearance.
Nancy Guthrie was last seen on the evening of January 31st when family members dropped her off at her home. When she failed to appear for a virtual church service the following morning, relatives went to check on her at approximately 11:56 AM and discovered she was missing. They called 911 at 12:03 PM, and the Pima County Sheriff’s Department immediately began treating the case as a suspected abduction.
Three news outlets, including TMZ, reported receiving ransom notes demanding $6 million in bitcoin, though law enforcement has not publicly verified the authenticity of these communications. The FBI has stated they are “not aware of any continued communication between the Guthrie family and suspected kidnappers.”
Sheriff Chris Nanos described Nancy as “sharp as a tack” with no cognitive issues, though she has limited mobility and requires daily medication. Authorities say that without her medication, her condition “could be fatal,” adding urgency to the search efforts.
The suspect’s amateur mistakes may prove to be the breakthrough investigators need. In kidnapping cases, experts say that inexperienced criminals are more likely to make errors that leave forensic evidence or create patterns that can be traced. The awkward firearm carrying, the improvised camera tampering, and the suspect’s visible nervousness in the footage all suggest someone who was unprepared for the realities of committing a serious crime.
Retired FBI Special Agent Harry Trombitas emphasized the critical role public tips play in solving kidnapping cases. “In my career, I worked a number of kidnappings, and relying on the public is critical,” he explained. He shared that in one case he worked with 5,700 leads, it was the 5,444th tip that ultimately solved the investigation. “Somebody knows who is involved out there, and we just need them to contact law enforcement.”
The surveillance footage shows the suspect wearing a ski mask, gloves, dark jacket, sneakers, and carrying a backpack — all items that investigators are now attempting to trace through retail purchase records. Law enforcement experts believe that if they can identify the specific brands and models of the clothing and equipment visible in the footage, they may be able to track purchases made in the Tucson area in the weeks leading up to Nancy’s disappearance.
As the investigation enters its eleventh day, the focus remains on two parallel tracks: following up on the thousands of tips flooding into law enforcement hotlines, and conducting systematic searches of areas surrounding Nancy’s Catalina Foothills neighborhood. FBI agents have been conducting extensive canvassing operations along multiple roadways, going door-to-door and asking residents to check their security camera footage.
The suspect’s “rookie mistakes” have given investigators hope that the case can be solved. Every amateur error creates another potential trail for law enforcement to follow, another piece of evidence that could lead to identification, and another opportunity for someone who recognizes the individual in the footage to come forward with information.
Anyone with information about Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance is urged to contact the FBI at 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324) or submit tips online at tips.fbi.gov. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department can also be reached at 520-351-4900. Authorities stress that no detail is too small — even information that seems insignificant could be the missing piece that brings Nancy home safely.